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Introduction



June 2005 Update


What do you know, I want more or less right on all scores! OK, they pulled the plug on Tejas - but what do you think the new dual-core Pentium's are, eh.
Damn I'm good - but you knew that anyway, right. Smiley wink

I'll update this section again in a month or so are I go over the site in detail.



The future is here, the future is now!


OK, I fibbed, but it is in sight and that future is PCI Express. Forget PCI-X and AGP, this will revolutionise the PC Bus! By way of example, I had it on good authority that the recently announced GeForce Fx will be ported to this bus for fall of 2003, if not sooner. According to Intels own plans, which I reckon will be moved slightly forward, a number of designs including motherboards and network cards will be ready to sample in Q2 2003. From reading developers notes I believe that components for building PCI Express boards and devices have been available to first tier partners since mid summer 2002, if not earlier.

Hey, what do you know, I was right. Nvideo and ATI had products samples for the IDF Smiley Smile!

If you are a regular here you'll know I've followed this for some time, and with good reason. I'm a lousy businessman, but I've a fair knack of predicting technology changes. Some of them are ongoing, like the plethera of memory types, some, like Serial ATA, are almost revolutionary and once in a blue moon we have the upheavals where everything we know and love gets tossed out the windows for a bigger and brighter toy...

If you've used computers for a long time you'll remember the change from ISA to PCI. Well, here we go again! If you missed the last ride it goes that this. If you buy a shiny state of the art PC any time between now and about next April or maybe May 2004, you are going to kick yourself silly. I have, but I do this every year. This time even I'm holding back a tad.

The ink isn't set but here's what I believe will happen...

2003-2004 2004-2005
400Mhz DDR
(800Mhz FSB)
533Mhz DDR-II (possibly even 600Mhz)
(1066Mhz or 1200Mhz FSB)
(IDE or) SATA SATA and SATA-II
PCI / AGP PCI / PCI Express (moving to PCI Express only)
1Gb NIC 1Gb NIC (moving rapidly to 10Gb)
3.2Ghz+ 478 pin P4, Prescott*3.6Ghz+ 775 pin Tejas
ATX Form factor BTX Form factor


Putting it another way, barring support for legacy items like IDE CD-ROM (unless it's ripped out, as I expect**), virtually everything inside your computers has a (cutting edge) life expectancy of months. Depending on thermal issues it's quite possible you'll even need to change the case and power supply.   Realistically, the cross-over will last a good year or two, but who wants to buy old kit when the new stuff has a far longer lifespan and costs about the same...

**You can always use IDE-SATA connectors)

*There are conflicting reports as to whether the Prescott will be Socket 478 or the upcoming Socket T, but IMHO anyone spending their hard earned pennies here when the Teja's is in reach has far more money than sense!


Top link: Intel's PCI Express Development page